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The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:

by davido (Archbishop)
on Jan 22, 2006 at 08:31 UTC ( #524762=poll: print w/ replies, xml ) Need Help??

vote on The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:

Broadband delivery (no physical media).
[bar] 133/40%
HD-DVD.
[bar] 36/11%
BlueRay.
[bar] 43/13%
CF-ROM (or SD-ROM, or MemoryStick-ROM, etc.)
[bar] 13/4%
I'm hoping for a Betamax comeback.
[bar] 62/19%
No way man, VHS all the way.
[bar] 19/6%
Other (please specify)
[bar] 24/7%
330 total votes
Comment on The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:
my bottle
by systems (Pilgrim) on Jan 22, 2006 at 11:06 UTC
    I think, it will have to be tangible, else it won't really be a replacement for DVDs.
    I imagine something USB sticks like, people will be able to load/unload, movies to their DVD players huge multi-gigabytes memory.
    This will mean, I can load like 10 movies to my DVD player and switch between them using the remote controller, without having to make several trips to the DVD player.
    This of courses, make it easier for people to share movies, so I don't think it will ever happen, but from a user perspective, I would vote for it.
Re: The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:
by PerlBear (Hermit) on Jan 22, 2006 at 11:50 UTC
Re: The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:
by Happy-the-monk (Monsignor) on Jan 22, 2006 at 11:58 UTC

    Vaudeville shows!

    (Given we're running out of energy sources...)

    Although I'd prefer broadband delivery or Movie Theaters.

    Cheerio, Sören

Re: The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:
by ww (Bishop) on Jan 22, 2006 at 13:01 UTC
    Flat rocks. Chisel & Hammer to pound chisel, optional (subject to liscensing under DRM) .
Re: The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:
by wfsp (Abbot) on Jan 22, 2006 at 13:21 UTC
    I shudder to think what they'll call it. I'm completely confused by the current proliferation of similar looking names/standards.

Re: The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:
by japhy (Canon) on Jan 22, 2006 at 15:40 UTC
"Betamax" lives on
by merlyn (Sage) on Jan 22, 2006 at 16:59 UTC
Re: The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:
by jZed (Prior) on Jan 22, 2006 at 17:17 UTC
    Replace it? That's impossible. What idiotic, lame-brained, moron ever thought you could replace it. Why even a small child who doesn't know left (join) from right knows you can't run DBI without a driver. There never will be a successor. The very ... oh what? ... you said "V"? Oh ... <gilda>nevermind</gilda>
Re: The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:
by Plato (Friar) on Jan 22, 2006 at 20:21 UTC
    I've still got my betamax... hoping for a comeback... anytime now... we all know it was superior to VHS, can't believe I got that so wrong.

    Plato.
Re: The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:
by marto (Chancellor) on Jan 22, 2006 at 22:41 UTC
    Wait a sec, are you telling me I just forked out for a laserdisc player for nothing?

    Martin
Re: The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:
by TedPride (Priest) on Jan 22, 2006 at 23:07 UTC
    People like having their movies in some sort of physical form. I think that while the number of movies you can put on a disc may change, the basic medium (a small, flat, round disc that you put in a drive) is not likely to change any time soon. Streaming is all very well for watching your weekly TV show, but when you're buying a whole season of the same TV show, you want it on DVD. That way you can play it anywhere, not just on a computer that has a high speed connection and the proper software installed.

    I don't forsee DVD being replaced.

      /me wonders if you forsaw Records being replaced? Cassette Disks? VHS? etc.

      If we could all forsee the future that would be pretty boring, but i think we can all agree DVD isn't the perfect format. Things will always get faster, better, cheaper, etc.


      ___________
      Eric Hodges
Re: The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:
by Knom (Beadle) on Jan 23, 2006 at 01:18 UTC
    Other: Qubits
Re: The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:
by rdm (Hermit) on Jan 23, 2006 at 01:57 UTC
    PEDOT data cubes! Link.

    No moving parts, WORM, and they're clear plastic cubes! Just like the future was promised to be!
    Now, where's my flying car?

    -Reality might not get out of Beta today. (O.Timas, "Bot")
      Now scheduled for 2008: Reserve your Skycar.

      Caution: Contents may have been coded under pressure.
Re: The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:
by jonadab (Parson) on Jan 23, 2006 at 02:02 UTC

    Whatever it is, nobody's ever heard of it yet, if it's even been invented. The DVD format is pretty new. Nothing is going to replace it for a good solid while. Heck, it's going to be another half dozen years before DVD finishes pushing VHS out of the market. As near as I can tell, there are currently still more VHS players in North America than DVD players (although, I'm pretty sure at this point more movies are watched on DVD than VHS; people who don't have DVD yet tend to be people who watch relatively few movies). Frankly, most of the DVD players that have ever been sold were manufactured in the last two years, and for the moment practically everyone that has a DVD player _also_ still has a VHS player (although that is starting to change, gradually). Plus, cam corders still mostly use VHS. DVD burners for computers only became sanely affordable in the last year or so. In short, DVD has only just barely arrived. It's not going anywhere for at *least* a decade. Any attempt to market a successor format now is going to meet with widespread apathy if not outright disbelief and scorn. Well, outside certain very narrow niche markets, it will. There are of course always a handful of people who will seek out and adopt a format if it meets their special needs (e.g., Laserdisc, which was present in school film departments and media labs all over North America for _years_ while the rest of the world used VHS), but that sort of product isn't going to push out a mainstream format like DVD. A few videophiles may adopt this or that, but for most folks DVD is still going to be the "new" format for a nice little while yet. Talking about what's going to replace it is, in a word, premature.

    HD-DVD and BluRay are competing for the niche markets formerly occupied by products like Laserdisc. Their proponents may *think* they're aiming to replace DVD, but that's a lot more enthusiastic than realistic.

      Did you just say "Plus, cam corders still mostly use VHS."?

      I'm glad to announce that as of 2006, that statement hasn't been true in over 15 years. And according to wikipedia, analog camcorders aren't even marketed anymore (this includes VHS, 8mm, Analog Hi-8, VHS-C, SVHS-C and SVHS). MiniDV and Digital-8 (shot on Hi-8 tapes) dominate 1st-world market sales, and according to a CNET article, DVD camcorders are currently the fastest growing market segment.


      Dave

        Did you just say "Plus, cam corders still mostly use VHS."?

        I have yet to see (outside of store displays) one that does not, except for models that don't record at all but only transmit to another device that does the recording (e.g., via firewire to a computer). There are also security-oriented video cameras, but those really are a different market from cam corders.

        And according to wikipedia, analog camcorders aren't even marketed anymore

        Aren't actively marketed with TV advertisements, perhaps. It is certainly still possible to buy one, although frankly at this point almost everyone who wants a camcorder has already had one for a while, so new sales in the last couple of years account for only a small percentage of the total units in existence. If you don't happen to have one, it's also not hard to go out and rent one for a week (unless you're trying to rent it for the week of Christmas or high school graduation, of course, in which case forget it). New sales at this point are mostly to young people who just moved out on their own, so it takes a few years for a new model to gain siginficant share.

        DVD camcorders are currently the fastest growing market segment.

        Now you're making my point for me. DVD camcorders are still at the stage of being the fastest-growing market segment for new sales. This implies that they're the new, up-and-coming format. In a couple more years they will dominate new sales to the extent that their market share can no longer grow much, and then in five or ten years after that they will account for the majority of the units people have. Nothing that comes out before then has a prayer of gaining significant acceptance in the market, because DVD has the mindshare. DVD isn't ready to be the old format on its way out yet; it's only just started to really get going.

      Generally, I agree with your point the DVDs are here for a while, just like the CD format has stayed just about constant for almost 20 years. On the otherhand you say:
      HD-DVD and BluRay are competing for the niche markets formerly occupied by products like Laserdisc. Their proponents may *think* they're aiming to replace DVD, but that's a lot more enthusiastic than realistic.
      DVDs were adopted very rapidly compared to the average electronic consumer device despite the existance of tape. HD formats might follow a similar pattern.

      While there aren't many adoptors of HD-DVD or BluRay right now, the emerging prevalence of HDTV monitors makes it a likely that the uptake will be rather fast going forward.

      I don't have a HD set yet, I've been waiting for more content, a reasonable HD tivo device, and a HD DVD like device. When I make the upgrade to my TV display I'll likely want to buy my movies in the new format to take advantage of the investment in the HD set.

      -------------------------------------
      Nothing is too wonderful to be true
      -- Michael Faraday

Re: The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:
by DrHyde (Prior) on Jan 23, 2006 at 10:07 UTC
    I have no fucking idea what half the things on that list are. But whatever it is, it'll be something physical that you can buy in the shops. No doubt it will also be encumbered with customer-unfriendly (but not pirate-unfriendly) "protection".

    Considered by ptum: "Unnecessary obscenity." Consideration vote: Keep = 6, Edit = 0, Reap = 8.
    Unconsidered by davido: No actionable request presented in the consideration, resulting in a meaningless consideration vote.

Re: The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:
by tweetiepooh (Friar) on Jan 23, 2006 at 10:39 UTC
    If the DRM guys get their way the system will be connected to the 'net in some form so they can control what you do with the media.

    Copy registers to your player so you can't pass it on
    Time limited versions
    Play limited versions
    Record of viewing habits to target advertising
    System inserts ad breaks into programming - only joking

    Actually what'll happen is some mechanism to insert the experience of seeing the program into the brain without needing to make the programme at all. This is personal, each viewer would need to pay, copy protected as there is nothing to copy, fast - no need to sit in front of a 3 hour film.
      i remember seeing a movie about that-
      at least i think i did... :)
Re: The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:
by tbone1 (Monsignor) on Jan 23, 2006 at 12:41 UTC
    Here at work, we've finally gotten rid of delivery on older formats (floppies, tapes ... and some of our clients had to be dragged kicking and screaming into the 90s) and we have standardized on CDs. We do offer broadband and are pushing our customers to use it (ie lower prices), but AFAIK we aren't even considering DVD because broadband is so much cheaper and more timely.

    --
    tbone1, YAPS (Yet Another Perl Schlub)
    And remember, if he succeeds, so what.
    - Chick McGee

Re: The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:
by wolfger (Deacon) on Jan 23, 2006 at 13:57 UTC
Re: The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:
by samizdat (Vicar) on Jan 23, 2006 at 14:11 UTC
    I think the real questions are going to be whether the rest of the world gets wired fast enough for downloads to surpass physical media, and whether they will get sucked into the payware problem. To me, the tea leaves that I download from RSS suggest that they will not, and Microsoft (and Sun and Apple, for that matter) will be running scared soon enough. My bet is that inexpensive, commodity computers with Linux and BSD, as well as hand-me-downs, will overwhelm the sales of Windows-equipped payware boxen very shortly. FreeBSD and Linux efforts are very strong in Asia, and, if you include China and India, it is already no contest. The only place hard media will survive is the US, and people here are getting a clue, too. The new music market includes downloads from artists who realize that record companies aren't their friends any more, and I think that videos will also come out this way, with the artists' money coming from live performances.

    I do think there will be two coexisting worlds in the US for a long time; those who have broadband and download freely, and those who lack the cluefulness and pay for dead tar pit platters of one kind or another.

    Gawdammit, my 1.4K cassette download of FORTH from Compuserve just got screwed, the cat knocked the handset out of the 300 baud modem. I'm going to have to start over...

    Don Wilde
    "There's more than one level to any answer."
Re: The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:
by Roy Johnson (Monsignor) on Jan 23, 2006 at 14:56 UTC
    I can't believe you didn't offer holographic storage as an option.

    Caution: Contents may have been coded under pressure.
Re: The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:
by talexb (Canon) on Jan 23, 2006 at 15:38 UTC

    Well, my E-Mail, 99% of my banking and my family's income tax returns all now live on the web. Why not everything else, including video?

    Broadband!!!

    Alex / talexb / Toronto

    "Groklaw is the open-source mentality applied to legal research" ~ Linus Torvalds

Re: The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:
by swampyankee (Parson) on Jan 23, 2006 at 16:50 UTC

    A wireless medium paid for by commercials interposed into the content.

    Never mind; they already do that

    emc

    " When in doubt, use brute force." — Ken Thompson
Re: The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:
by BigRare (Pilgrim) on Jan 23, 2006 at 20:31 UTC
    Holographic storage in a plugable device? I don't like disks... And I don't trust slot-loading drives. I do like having a cup-holder built-in, though.

    I hope the successor to DVD will have no moving parts. Perhaps a read-only Flash-Drive. I like the way those things work.

    Hmm, there's a project. Just have to buy a bunch of CF cards and a bay based reader. Automount the cards, plug and play.
Re: The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:
by kwaping (Priest) on Jan 24, 2006 at 16:20 UTC
    The aliens are going to begin beaming movies directly into everyone's heads in the near future. They're testing it on me right now.


    peanut butter.
Re: The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:
by gregor42 (Parson) on Jan 24, 2006 at 17:24 UTC

    Checking back today I see that the majority seems to agree with me that Broadband delivery will be the next Big Thing(TM).

    My guess is that's what Apple is betting the farm on, and their recent move to Intel was more about TPM than about fast processors. They're making a lot of money off of digital distribution via iTunes right now. Many might argue that it's already effectively replaced CD's for audio distribution. TPM would be an effective mechanism to allow the likes of Disney to distibue for the MPAA without too much blubbering about piracy.

    But to be really specific about HOW I'd prefer to see that broadband distribution working, in a word: BitTorrent



    Wait! This isn't a Parachute, this is a Backpack!
Re: The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:
by arkturuz (Curate) on Jan 25, 2006 at 11:53 UTC
    BlueRay?

    It's Blu-ray :-)

Re: The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:
by master_son (Acolyte) on Jan 25, 2006 at 18:45 UTC
    Be as it may, Blu-Ray will definitely subplant the DVD media for gaming consoles for sure. My question is why would we want to phase out DVDs? A blu-Ray player should be able to have a red laser for reading DVDs, CD, and the like.
Re: The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:
by hsmyers (Canon) on Jan 26, 2006 at 15:56 UTC
    Gotta go with elven magic---starting in England of course, they have more of those big Oak trees...

    --hsm

    "Never try to teach a pig to sing...it wastes your time and it annoys the pig."
Re: The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:
by johndageek (Hermit) on Jan 27, 2006 at 15:14 UTC
    What next medium? You are part of the movie. Haven't been offered the blue pill or red pill yet?

    Enjoy!
    Dageek

Re: The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:
by Grygonos (Chaplain) on Jan 27, 2006 at 19:51 UTC

    HD-DVD will win because consumers are already innendated with the term HD from the recent pricepoint drop in High Definition CRT,DLP, & LCD sets. In their minds HD = good, and the name alone may be enough to pull it through the marketing muck. not saying HD-DVD is the best standard, but the term DVD is already in their minds and is a joe 6 pack term. Blueray is losing on the name game front.. and unfortunately that's a good portion of it

    They would probably call it blueray dvd when it came out, but the fact that they aren't currently is hurting them, in terms of getting the word out to joe 6 pack.. which is unfortunately .. who matters here.

      I work for US stock exchange as stock market dealer and i could tell you that the Blu-Ray is well on its way to replacing the DVD based on stock trends
Re: The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:
by Qiang (Friar) on Jan 28, 2006 at 15:02 UTC
    Broadband streaming is the way to go and is almost here. I currently using pplive.com to watch most of my chinese videos (tv/movies etc), it's utilizing p2p to delivery the streaming so it's really fast. and it has been around for a year or so.
Re: The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:
by HoRi555 (Novice) on Jan 28, 2006 at 19:55 UTC
    In the future, all media will be encoded into cheese.
    ----
    Data..for the sake of data.
Re: The next successful successor to DVD as a medium for video will be:
by Anonymous Monk on Apr 14, 2009 at 21:46 UTC
    It should be some sort of flash memory medium. Something physical, with enough space, portable and most importantly: hard to damage (stupid scratched cd's and dvd's). Flash drives or something like them should have replaced these a long time ago.
      Where are all the visionaries? It has to be a flash drive (hard to wreck) type medium. I think people will always want a hard copy. Chips rule, and make the most logistical sense.

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