note
tilly
This will be my one and only contribution to this thread,
I have seen the Monty Hall problem too many times.<P>
The situation where switching makes sense is if (as in the
original problem) the announcer actually knows which door
has the prize, and the announcer will always pick a door
without the prize first. Then your analysis is correct.
After the announcer shows you a losing door, your chance
of winning if you switch is 2/3, versus 1/3 if you stay
put.<P>
But if the announcer is an ignorant guesser, then it makes
no difference whether you switch or not. This is the case
that corresponds to most people's intuition - indeed the
value of switching with the usual analysis is because the
announcer affects the information available.<P>
The third case, which [chipmunk] alluded to, is the case of
an evil announcer who knows the answer and wants you to
fail. In this case you should stick to your guns...
46229
46311