In The Career Programmer, Christopher Duncan points out another problem that's related to this: forecasters think that they can get 8-hours of coding out of a programmer wach day.
In reality, you have to come up with some fraction (say, 6/10ths, which is optimistic) and assume that's the part of the day that the programmer can actually be useful, for whatever reason.
It's not that we haven't learned anything, it's that the people on the other side aren't us. No one really makes some life decision to be a project manager. It just happens, usually on the way to doing something else. There is some training available, but there certainly isn't a concensus on what it should be. :(
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