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This will be my one and only contribution to this thread, I have seen the Monty Hall problem too many times.

The situation where switching makes sense is if (as in the original problem) the announcer actually knows which door has the prize, and the announcer will always pick a door without the prize first. Then your analysis is correct. After the announcer shows you a losing door, your chance of winning if you switch is 2/3, versus 1/3 if you stay put.

But if the announcer is an ignorant guesser, then it makes no difference whether you switch or not. This is the case that corresponds to most people's intuition - indeed the value of switching with the usual analysis is because the announcer affects the information available.

The third case, which chipmunk alluded to, is the case of an evil announcer who knows the answer and wants you to fail. In this case you should stick to your guns...

In reply to Re (tilly) 2: If given a choice.... by tilly
in thread I prefer what's behind by vroom

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