Did you just say "Plus, cam corders still mostly use VHS."?
I have yet to see (outside of store displays) one that does not,
except for models that don't record at all but only transmit to
another device that does the recording (e.g., via firewire to a
computer). There are also security-oriented video cameras, but
those really are a different market from cam corders.
And according to wikipedia, analog camcorders aren't even marketed anymore
Aren't actively marketed with TV advertisements, perhaps. It is
certainly still possible to buy one, although frankly at this point
almost everyone who wants a camcorder has already had one for a while,
so new sales in the last couple of years account for only a small
percentage of the total units in existence. If you don't happen to
have one, it's also not hard to go out and rent one for a week (unless
you're trying to rent it for the week of Christmas or high school
graduation, of course, in which case forget it). New sales at this
point are mostly to young people who just moved out on their own,
so it takes a few years for a new model to gain siginficant share.
DVD camcorders are currently the fastest growing market segment.
Now you're making my point for me. DVD camcorders are still at the
stage of being the fastest-growing market segment for new sales.
This implies that they're the new, up-and-coming format. In a
couple more years they will dominate new sales to the extent that
their market share can no longer grow much, and then in five
or ten years after that they will account for the majority of the
units people have. Nothing that comes out before then has a prayer
of gaining significant acceptance in the market, because DVD has
the mindshare. DVD isn't ready to be the old format on its way
out yet; it's only just started to really get going.
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