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Re^2: PM Confessional

by Albannach (Prior)
on Jan 15, 2011 at 16:27 UTC ( #882459=note: print w/replies, xml ) Need Help??


in reply to Re: PM Confessional
in thread PM Confessional

That reminds me of something a senior engineer told me about 20 years ago on the topic of estimating effort: double your first number and go the the next larger unit. So if your first reaction is 30 seconds, better say 60 minutes. Four hours is more likely to be 8 days, and so on. I'm still crap at estimating individual task effort, but I'm much better at total project cost at least.

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Re^3: PM Confessional
by fullermd (Priest) on Jan 17, 2011 at 00:11 UTC

    These sort of rules of thumb sound half-funny half-useful, until the day comes that you apply them and still wind up behind an 8-ball...

    Er, not that that's ever happened to me, three times in a row, or anything. No siree...

Re^3: PM Confessional
by MidLifeXis (Monsignor) on Jan 18, 2011 at 15:47 UTC

    Ours was multiply by two and add 40.

    --MidLifeXis

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[Corion]: Whee! Germanys Grand Central Airport (for Berlin, re-scheduled for the thrid or fourth time, to open now in 2018) has just fired their technical lead
[ambrus]: Corion: Is their budget estimate four times the initial estimate yet? Was the construction late by six months already three months after they started?
[marto]: I'll believe it when I see it. That's been due for many years now :P
[marto]: oddly the last time I was there I saw a zeppelin in flight for the first time
[Corion]: ambrus: I don't know how far the budget estimate has been overrun yet
[Corion]: marto: Heh ;) No, you were likely at Tegel or Schönefeld, the new one ("BER") will be somewhat outside of Berlin ;)

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