Re (tilly) 3: The first cargo cults

[tilly]

What I think is that we all start by believing in some form of "magic". How we learn to distinguish our magical misconceptions from reality is through trying to create conceptual integrity. Without having at least some of that we lack the basic tools to try to form our own concepts. (For more on this, a lot more on this, I suggest picking up Why People Believe Weird Things.)

As for the speech, I agree absolutely that a lot of it was about how people don't learn from experience. More than that, it was what you need to do to have a chance of learning from experience. And at the top of that list is that you have to be willing to discover that you are wrong. If at all possible, you want to encourage this. Keep in mind that that discovering that you are wrong is the first step to improving and having a chance of being right.

Incidentally while this is one of the first principles of how successful science works, it is not sufficient for progress. All of the willingness to learn won't help you one bit if what you are trying to learn about isn't amenable to simplification and analysis with your current toolset. Which is one of the reasons that the social sciences have been unable to establish solid foundations for themselves. It is not that no good scientists have tried to do so. It is that the subject is not tractable enough for us to do a good job with it.