Beefy Boxes and Bandwidth Generously Provided by pair Networks
"be consistent"
 
PerlMonks  

RE: X-treme P-ondering

by Dominus (Parson)
on Nov 13, 2000 at 21:32 UTC ( #41356=note: print w/ replies, xml ) Need Help??


in reply to RE: X-treme P-ondering
in thread X-treme P-ondering

Yes, and that 5XP a day from voting looks even smaller when you consider that the same person is also getting a free 2XP every day just for logging in.

On a related metter, a couple of days ago I got to wondering how big the voting bonus really was. An Acolyte gets 8 votes per day, so it's easy to see that the Acolyte can expect to acquire an extra 2 XP from casting votes. (Not counting an additional bonus of 2 XP for using them all up.) But the 2XP is really a 25% chance of 1 XP for each vote, so the Acolyte might be lucky and get more XP, or unlucky and get none at all.

my $n = shift || 8; my $p = shift || .25; for ($i=0; $i<=$n; ++$i) { my $prob = choose($n,$i) * ($p**$i) * ((1-$p)**($n-$i)); $x += $i * $prob; $tp += $prob; printf "%2d %.4f\t(%.4f)\n", $i, $prob, 1-$tp; } print "Expected: $x\n"; sub choose { my ($n, $r) = @_; return 0 if $n < 0 || $r < 0 || $r > $n; return 1 if $r == 0 || $r == $n; return choose($n-1,$r-1) * $n / $r; }
(THe program will run When you run this, you can give it an argument which is the number of votes you get per day; it defaults to 8. Then it prints out a table showing the probability of getting each possible number of XP:

0 0.1001 (0.8999) 1 0.2670 (0.6329) 2 0.3115 (0.3215) 3 0.2076 (0.1138) 4 0.0865 (0.0273) 5 0.0231 (0.0042) 6 0.0038 (0.0004) 7 0.0004 (0.0000) 8 0.0000 (0.0000) Expected: 2
The '3' line here says that there is a 20.76% chance of receiving exactly 3 XP, and a 11.38% chance of receiving more than 3 XP. The '0' line says there's a 10.01% chance of receving nothing at all.

The chances fall off pretty quickly as the number of points increase, but still about one Acolyte in 11 can expect to get 4 XP from casting votes instead of only 2 XP on a given day.


Comment on RE: X-treme P-ondering
Select or Download Code
RE: RE: X-treme P-ondering
by Blue (Hermit) on Nov 13, 2000 at 21:42 UTC
    All very true, but perhaps not as significant as it seems. While any given day you may get up to 1 XP per vote while others you get 0, in order to get enough votes to go up a level, you need more then one days worth of voting. As such, over a large number of votes, it will most likely average about 1/4 XP per vote. Because of the randomness factor there will always be local variation and noise, but over a large number of votes, it will average out.

    BTW, nice program, and thanks for bringing Perl into our discussion.

    =Blue
    ...you might be eaten by a grue...

Log In?
Username:
Password:

What's my password?
Create A New User
Node Status?
node history
Node Type: note [id://41356]
help
Chatterbox?
and the web crawler heard nothing...

How do I use this? | Other CB clients
Other Users?
Others chilling in the Monastery: (14)
As of 2015-07-06 16:59 GMT
Sections?
Information?
Find Nodes?
Leftovers?
    Voting Booth?

    The top three priorities of my open tasks are (in descending order of likelihood to be worked on) ...









    Results (77 votes), past polls