My vote was the 11th cast, and I walk back now that there's 130 and see all kinds of intelligent dialog about the probability of selecting the "correct" door. What to do with a bunch of type A's on a presumed quest for riches? In the interest of involving perl in this discussion, here are a few links to relevant scripts written by segfault.org's own Leonard Richardson. He doesn't use strict, warnings or taint checking, and it's not my fault. I'm just the lowly little blob of gray matter redirecting this discussion to involve perl.
Well, in theory .. mabye door #1 opens too door #2 .. or we're really standing in the doorway of #1, and can only really see #2?
What if the doors swing both ways? Would that make 4 doors total?
Take the one on the right.
Perhaps there's only one door, just labelled "Door #1" and "Door #2" on either side of the door. And maybe there could be some kind of weird wormhole situation going on here where if you open the door one way you can go through to some kind of alternate universe (let's call this Door #1, although it's really just the side of the door labelled "Door #1"), but if you open it the other way you just go through to the other side. Or maybe there's two alternate univi and opening the door either way would give you access to paralell dimensions where opening the Door #1 would cause the Door #2 (the other side of Door #1 in the first universe) to be opened. By opening the door into the alternate universe, you're actually opening another door in that universe, just the other way, so who's to say that it's not Door #2 in the other universe you were opening, thereby opening Door #1 twice (as it's the other side of Door #1, but in another universe, and since Door #2 in another universe opens into another alternate reality, might be opening a whole new can of worms there (and this is only Door #1 (or the side of the door labelled "Door #1" (in our universe (assuming that we can lay claim to this universe and it's not really someone else's) that we've just opened)!). And god knows what would happen if the can of worms opened into the same universe that Door #1 (or #2, depending on which universe you're in and which side you're on) went into.
If you ever are given a choice of 3 doors (only one is a winner), you make a decision, they show you a booby prize behind a door you didn't choose, and then ask you if you want to change doors, say "Yes." You'll win 2/3 of the time. I have a simulation to show this, but it's written in Ada, so I'd be --'d for a while :)
Unless, of course, they're trying to trick you by only showing you the booby prize if you picked the winning door. :)
Here's an explanation of the odds, assuming they're playing fair:
There's a 1/3 chance of picking the winning door right off. If you do that and then change your mind, you lose.
There's a 2/3 chance of picking a losing door right off. If they show you a booby prize behind another door, there's only one door left, which has to be the winner. You change your mind and win.
This will be my one and only contribution to this thread,
I have seen the Monty Hall problem too many times.
The situation where switching makes sense is if (as in the
original problem) the announcer actually knows which door
has the prize, and the announcer will always pick a door
without the prize first. Then your analysis is correct.
After the announcer shows you a losing door, your chance
of winning if you switch is 2/3, versus 1/3 if you stay
But if the announcer is an ignorant guesser, then it makes
no difference whether you switch or not. This is the case
that corresponds to most people's intuition - indeed the
value of switching with the usual analysis is because the
announcer affects the information available.
The third case, which chipmunk alluded to, is the case of
an evil announcer who knows the answer and wants you to
fail. In this case you should stick to your guns...
nevermind this door thing, where is the "play the price is right!" vote?
the pluses of playing "the price is right" are numerous.
1. you see the prizes you get to choose
2. there are beautiful women showing them off, albeit they don't say much.
3. you get to spin a wheel, always a plus.
4. there is no regis, BIG plus!!!
5. you have to spay or neuter your pet before you go on, "sorry spot daddy's gonna get rich".
6. merv griffens hair piece is ON merv griffen, so no surprises.
7. it's better than family feud, can you say aunt mildred.
8. you get to run down the eisle screaming
9. you get a complementary name tag that is bigger than your head