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Re: PM Confessional

by dHarry (Abbot)
on Jan 15, 2011 at 14:17 UTC ( #882455=note: print w/replies, xml ) Need Help??


in reply to PM Confessional

Ah confession time...

I once had to port an environment from Unix AIX to a VAX OpenVMS machine. Belief it or not, it was about 15 years ago:) Creating databases, dumping and loading data, modifying scripts and compiling tons of SW. At the end of a long day it all worked. "Let's just clean up this temporary directory and go home, I told my mate." Oops! I know the feeling, "hmm this takes longer than it should..." Next day it took about two hours to do everything again... I did learn from it, as it never happened again (so far).

Later a senior engineer explained me about the 4-factor. When you do overtime and get tired, everything takes 2 times as long and you make 2 times more mistakes. 2*2=4. It sounds silly but the 4-factor is a useful concept to know. Especially if you're managing a project and ask the SW engineers to do overtime to meet some deadline.

Cheers

Harry

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Re^2: PM Confessional
by Albannach (Prior) on Jan 15, 2011 at 16:27 UTC
    That reminds me of something a senior engineer told me about 20 years ago on the topic of estimating effort: double your first number and go the the next larger unit. So if your first reaction is 30 seconds, better say 60 minutes. Four hours is more likely to be 8 days, and so on. I'm still crap at estimating individual task effort, but I'm much better at total project cost at least.

    --
    I'd like to be able to assign to an luser

      These sort of rules of thumb sound half-funny half-useful, until the day comes that you apply them and still wind up behind an 8-ball...

      Er, not that that's ever happened to me, three times in a row, or anything. No siree...

      Ours was multiply by two and add 40.

      --MidLifeXis

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[Corion]: Whee! Germanys Grand Central Airport (for Berlin, re-scheduled for the thrid or fourth time, to open now in 2018) has just fired their technical lead
[ambrus]: Corion: Is their budget estimate four times the initial estimate yet? Was the construction late by six months already three months after they started?
[marto]: I'll believe it when I see it. That's been due for many years now :P
[marto]: oddly the last time I was there I saw a zeppelin in flight for the first time
[Corion]: ambrus: I don't know how far the budget estimate has been overrun yet
[Corion]: marto: Heh ;) No, you were likely at Tegel or Schönefeld, the new one ("BER") will be somewhat outside of Berlin ;)
[marto]: Corion Schoenfeld, but my friend has been telling me about this new airport for about 7-8 years now :P
[marto]: I doubt it even exists as a building site :P

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