I think the real questions are going to be whether the rest of the world gets wired fast enough for downloads to surpass physical media, and whether they will get sucked into the payware problem. To me, the tea leaves that I download from RSS suggest that they will not, and Microsoft (and Sun and Apple, for that matter) will be running scared soon enough. My bet is that inexpensive, commodity computers with Linux and BSD, as well as hand-me-downs, will overwhelm the sales of Windows-equipped payware boxen very shortly. FreeBSD and Linux efforts are very strong in Asia, and, if you include China and India, it is already no contest. The only place hard media will survive is the US, and people here are getting a clue, too. The new music market includes downloads from artists who realize that record companies aren't their friends any more, and I think that videos will also come out this way, with the artists' money coming from live performances.
I do think there will be two coexisting worlds in the US for a long time; those who have broadband and download freely, and those who lack the cluefulness and pay for dead tar pit platters of one kind or another.
Gawdammit, my 1.4K cassette download of FORTH from Compuserve just got screwed, the cat knocked the handset out of the 300 baud modem. I'm going to have to start over...
"There's more than one level to any answer."
Posts are HTML formatted. Put <p> </p> tags around your paragraphs. Put <code> </code> tags around your code and data!
Titles consisting of a single word are discouraged, and in most cases are disallowed outright.
Read Where should I post X? if you're not absolutely sure you're posting in the right place.
Please read these before you post! —
Posts may use any of the Perl Monks Approved HTML tags:
You may need to use entities for some characters, as follows. (Exception: Within code tags, you can put the characters literally.)
- a, abbr, b, big, blockquote, br, caption, center, col, colgroup, dd, del, div, dl, dt, em, font, h1, h2, h3, h4, h5, h6, hr, i, ins, li, ol, p, pre, readmore, small, span, spoiler, strike, strong, sub, sup, table, tbody, td, tfoot, th, thead, tr, tt, u, ul, wbr
Link using PerlMonks shortcuts! What shortcuts can I use for linking?
See Writeup Formatting Tips and other pages linked from there for more info.
| & || & |
| < || < |
| > || > |
| [ || [ |
| ] || ] ||