Generally, I agree with your point the DVDs are here for a while, just like the CD format has stayed just about constant for almost 20 years. On the otherhand you say:
HD-DVD and BluRay are competing for the niche markets formerly occupied by products like Laserdisc. Their proponents may *think* they're aiming to replace DVD, but that's a lot more enthusiastic than realistic.
DVDs were adopted very rapidly compared to the average electronic consumer device despite the existance of tape. HD formats might follow a similar pattern.
While there aren't many adoptors of HD-DVD or BluRay right now, the emerging prevalence of HDTV monitors makes it a likely that the uptake will be rather fast going forward.
I don't have a HD set yet, I've been waiting for more content, a reasonable HD tivo device, and a HD DVD like device. When I make the upgrade to my TV display I'll likely want to buy my movies in the new format to take advantage of the investment in the HD set.
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Nothing is too wonderful to be true
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