The more I think about this, the more it occurs to me that in a sense we're both right, without any compromises being made in either position: in five years, there will still be as much need for "tight coupling" as there is now, and now there is as much need for it as there was five years ago, and so on back to the invention of the term in reference to code modularity. What changes isn't the necessity for tight coupling, but how we define tightness of coupling. Some of what we call "loose coupling" now will be thought of as "tight coupling" in five years. Thus, if there were a way to measure an absolute percentage value for incidence of tight coupling, in five years the percentage will likely be about the same as it is now, but the metric itself will have changed.
At least, that seems to be the likely state of affairs to me.
CopyWrite Chad Perrin