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Re: Too soon for guesses on when node #1234567 will arrive?

by stevieb (Abbot)
on Aug 08, 2017 at 22:00 UTC ( #1197047=note: print w/replies, xml ) Need Help??

in reply to Too soon for guesses on when node #1234567 will arrive?

So I'm going to take a crack at a *very* rough guess:

- ~17yrs == yrs since PM began - ~70k == avg posts/yr - ~44567 == post remaining to hit target

Given that, and the known decline in traffic over the last few years, I'll say we hit the target on August 19, 2018, which ironically, will be my 10th birthday here as a signed-up, non-lurking participant (I was a lurker for eight years or so).

For semi-reasonable statistical estimates, we need either someone who can really poll the DB to create a more accurate prediction, or BrowserUk, as I believe he can sit and figure this kind of stuff out in his head.

For the record: 2018-08-19

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