Re: Re: The future of software design

[Anonymous Monk]

"If programming was going to turn into something like civil engineering or auto repair, it would have already. The computer industry is 50 years old."

Yeah, sure -- we've been making buildings for thousands of years, but a formal civil engineering practice is only a (relatively) recent innovation. Previously builders just sort of did their best and learned from others mistakes. A lot like how programming (currently) is.

I think it's _way_ too early to see where computer programming is going to end up. Neither of the analogies is particularly apt, since civil engineering is essentially applying scientific methods to well-understood problems. A particular steel beam might have a particular tensile strength, weight, and other well-known properties. Likewise a wooden beam has "well known" properties. The decision of which to use is based on mathmatical formulas balancing cost vs. risk.

Likewise with the auto-mechanic analogy -- you can become an auto mechanic with little or no formal training, simply learning on the job. Unfortunately you also don't need an IQ much above 80 either. In any event, auto mechanics don't build cars or design them -- professional engineers do that.

I tend to agree with another poster that pushed a craftsman analogy. Although craftsmen are basically seat-of-the-pants engineers, they do make things (unlike mechanics), and their work is as much art as science (much like programming is right now). Blacksmiths might not know the precise tensile strength of a particular metal bar, but they can experiment a bit and probably find something that will work.

I think that this 'craftsmen' approach to programming will disappear, replaced with an 'engineer' approach, but only as the problem domains become well-known, predictable, and measurable. This might take hundreds of years, by which time human 'computer engineers' will probably be replaced with intelligent systems, and programming will be like talking to an assistant is now.

[blssu]

Modern societies have big egos. Were the Great Pyramids one of the early mistakes? ;)

Programmers have a bit of power now. If we wanted to, we could easily create formal social/professional structures. Do you want them? I don't. Who does? Will your government create them? Would you oppose that? I would.