in reply to RE: X-treme P-ondering

in thread X-treme P-ondering

Yes, and that 5XP a day from voting looks even smaller when you
consider that the same person is also getting a free 2XP
every day just for logging in.

On a related metter, a couple of days ago I got to wondering how big the voting bonus really was. An Acolyte gets 8 votes per day, so it's easy to see that the Acolyte can expect to acquire an extra 2 XP from casting votes. (Not counting an additional bonus of 2 XP for using them all up.) But the 2XP is really a 25% chance of 1 XP for each vote, so the Acolyte might be lucky and get more XP, or unlucky and get none at all.

(THe program will run When you run this, you can give it an argument which is the number of votes you get per day; it defaults to 8. Then it prints out a table showing the probability of getting each possible number of XP:my $n = shift || 8; my $p = shift || .25; for ($i=0; $i<=$n; ++$i) { my $prob = choose($n,$i) * ($p**$i) * ((1-$p)**($n-$i)); $x += $i * $prob; $tp += $prob; printf "%2d %.4f\t(%.4f)\n", $i, $prob, 1-$tp; } print "Expected: $x\n"; sub choose { my ($n, $r) = @_; return 0 if $n < 0 || $r < 0 || $r > $n; return 1 if $r == 0 || $r == $n; return choose($n-1,$r-1) * $n / $r; }

The '3' line here says that there is a 20.76% chance of receiving exactly 3 XP, and a 11.38% chance of receiving more than 3 XP. The '0' line says there's a 10.01% chance of receving nothing at all.0 0.1001 (0.8999) 1 0.2670 (0.6329) 2 0.3115 (0.3215) 3 0.2076 (0.1138) 4 0.0865 (0.0273) 5 0.0231 (0.0042) 6 0.0038 (0.0004) 7 0.0004 (0.0000) 8 0.0000 (0.0000) Expected: 2

The chances fall off pretty quickly as the number of points increase, but still about one Acolyte in 11 can expect to get 4 XP from casting votes instead of only 2 XP on a given day.

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RE: RE: X-treme P-ondering
by Blue (Hermit) on Nov 13, 2000 at 21:42 UTC |

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