in reply to The Monty Hall Trap Simulator

This reminds me of a well-known principle in advanced Duplicate Bridge play called the "Principle of Restricted Choice."

In a nutshell (translating Monty Hall into a Bridge-like situation), if you have chosen the wrong door, Monty only has one choice; he *must* pick the wrong door. If you had already chosen the correct door, both of his choices would be equally wrong.

Now (here's the tricky part), since he *has* picked one door, we know that if you are right, he *could* have picked the other door. Since he *didn't* pick it, *you* should. The odds are in your favor if you do.

Too much fun :-)

I looked for a good "Restricted Choice" link, but this was the best I could do on short notice

Russ

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Comment onRe: Monty Hall (Russ: Bridge calls it "Restricted Choice")