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Re^4: [OT] Stats problem

by BrowserUk (Pope)
on Feb 26, 2015 at 23:06 UTC ( #1118015=note: print w/replies, xml ) Need Help??


in reply to Re^3: [OT] Stats problem
in thread [OT] Stats problem

build yourself a small monte carlo simulation

Well, its running, but it'll need to run for a while to be statistically valid.

In the meantime are you saying that the fact that the value at any given offset has to match both the value and the offset has no influence upon the chances of a false positive?

The UK national lottery picks 6 balls from 49: 49!/(6!*(49-6)!) = 1:13,983,816 chance.

And once all 6 balls are out of the machine; they reorder them by ascending value; so the result is always shown as B1 < B2 < B3 < B4 < B5 < B6.

But if players had to match both the numbers and their draw order, it would be a lot harder. The odds would be 6! * 13,983,816 = 1:10,068,347,520.

So, value and position: highly increased odds; but you're saying that's not a factor here?


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Re^5: [OT] Stats problem
by RichardK (Parson) on Feb 27, 2015 at 12:40 UTC

    As I understand it the 2 events are completely independent. At the time the corruption occurs there a 100% percent chance that each cell has a fixed value, so it's just not relevant how that value was arrived at.

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